Led Strong Recovery
Did Not
Yesterday's disappointing report that the economy only added 125,000 jobs last month confirms what many have been saying for some time now --- the present recovery, from a very deep recession, is far less robust than the 1982-83 recovery, also from a deep recession. Thus, a story in CNN Money yesterday compared current job growth at this point in the Presidential election cycle to analogous growth during 1984, the year that an incumbent President Reagan was locked in a re-election bid against former Vice President Mondale. According to the story:
"In April 1984 the economy added 363,000 jobs. In the first four months of 1984, employment growth hit 1,564,000. This year [2012], the first four months have brought about half that amount. And the Reagan recovery sustained its momentum through the election, averaging 300,000 new jobs a month from May to October."
As the story explains, President Reagan went on to win reelection with a 525 electoral vote landslide, despite presiding over a deep recession early in his first term.
It goes without saying that, if job growth remains weak through November, the prospect of President Obama's reelection will remain comparatively dim, perhaps even dimmer than some might realize. After all, comparisons like those just quoted, while instructive, actually understate the gap between the Reagan and Obama recoveries. Simply put, the 2012 labor force is far larger than its 1984 equivalent. According to these data from the St. Louis Fed, total non-farm employment was about 91 million when the economy peaked in early 1980. In late 2007, by contrast, total employment peaked at just over 138 million. (See also here for the late 2007 figure.) Thus, any comparison between the Obama and Reagan recoveries requires upward adjustment of the figures from the Reagan figures, to account for today's much larger denominator.
Such an adjustment would require the following "corrections" to the CNNMoney story:
"In April 1984 the economy added 363,000 550,000 jobs. In the first four months of 1984, employment growth hit 1,564,000 2,371,780. This year [2012], the first four months have brought about half that amount. And the Reagan recovery sustained its momentum through the election, averaging 300,000 455,00 new jobs a month from May to October."
